Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3e70023c2307f50b8131cde5b68336e2d8dbb3056fdcc831c338e18b26698db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof 1win, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked MODUS | 30c | 7,594$2,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,245.42 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed 1win | 44c | 2,685$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496.16 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed 1win | 49c | 1,984$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.91 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed MODUS | 43c | 1,728$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.54 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed 1win | 49c | 1,687$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.25 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed 1win | 73c | 1,594$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.9 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked 1win | 68c | 1,392$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.28 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed MODUS | 49c | 1,347$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.57 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked MODUS | 22c | 1,259$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.84 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed MODUS | 36c | 1,211$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.57 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed MODUS | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed MODUS | 33c | 999.99$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked 1win | 77c | 987.82$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.59 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed 1win | 70c | 958.81$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.41 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked 1win | 58c | 865.85$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.71 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed MODUS | 31c | 604.61$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.43 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked MODUS | 35c | 570.54$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.86 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked 1win | 67c | 528.62$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.33 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked 1win | 68c | 523.14$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.61 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed 1win | 66c | 489.8$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.53 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked MODUS | 32c | 473.54$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.39 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed MODUS | 36c | 461.63$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.79 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed 1win | 63c | 358.43$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.77 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked 1win | 75c | 347.17$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.67 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked 1win | 67c | 321.28$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.02 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed 1win | 73c | 318.25$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed 1win | 64c | 304.57$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.86 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…cff5backed 1win | 67c | 303.86$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.27 | 336 | 44%148 W · 188 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked 1win | 55c | 274.08$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.45 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed MODUS | 32c | 264.17$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.53 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed 1win | 70c | 239.37$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 150 | 64.7%97 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed MODUS | 42c | 228.16$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.83 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed 1win | 66c | 224.03$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 500 | 53%265 W · 235 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed MODUS | 40c | 217.83$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.47 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed 1win | 72c | 216.62$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win | 73c | 200.33$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed MODUS | 48c | 193.76$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked 1win | 80c | 192.47$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed MODUS | 25c | 139.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed MODUS | 16c | 137$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed 1win | 59c | 136.51$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef35…c333backed 1win | 68c | 130.49$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…20a2backed MODUS | 30c | 120.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c52…677dbacked MODUS | 39c | 111.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked MODUS | 24c | 99.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked MODUS | 17c | 98.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked 1win | 63c | 94.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed 1win | 56c | 84.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed MODUS | 31c | 79.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed 1win | 63c | 70.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked 1win | 66c | 68.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked MODUS | 23c | 61.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 245 | 18.8%46 W · 199 L | -31.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed MODUS | 48c | 58.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed MODUS | 28c | 56.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed 1win | 60c | 55.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed 1win | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked 1win | 68c | 38.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…1c86backed 1win | 41c | 35.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked 1win | 47c | 29.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed 1win | 77c | 19.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be1…5009backed 1win | 63c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…dc17backed 1win | 73c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 73 | 76.7%56 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs1win won
- Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner1win won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.