TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
1winof 1win, MODUS
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,814
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,362

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,814 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed 1win57c11,463$6,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,967.8854556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MODUS51c4,379$2,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,248.122,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed MODUS53c3,889$2,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,055.5247046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed MODUS44c3,779$1,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,677.9851751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed 1win42c1,449$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.521,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked MODUS62c1,446$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.0336547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed 1win38c1,217$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.1846451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed MODUS67c1,053$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.2645061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked MODUS30c996.38$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.9646240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked MODUS46c934.02$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.251,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MODUS51c810.47$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.232,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked 1win74c806.69$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.2436759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1994…d63cbacked 1win71c791.13$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.524261.9%26 W · 16 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+21%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked 1win70c736.74$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.1577458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked MODUS35c716.16$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.4136851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked MODUS41c710.53$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.0567043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed MODUS54c686.84$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.7272035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked MODUS53c560.19$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.9999844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked MODUS38c556.74$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.841,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed 1win66c555.83$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.1277941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MODUS64c553.92$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.911,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked 1win73c539.91$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.4136654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked 1win38c512.9$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.3914747.6%70 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked 1win31c501.07$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.11,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed MODUS71c491.39$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.359250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed MODUS27c483.84$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.6429042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked 1win27c461.44$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.065158.8%30 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed 1win52c394.31$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.2761548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc9…e444backed MODUS27c354.15$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6213228.8%38 W · 94 L-9.7wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-40%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked MODUS53c348.53$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.2942145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked MODUS7c335.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4469033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3621…2d2dbacked 1win42c335.69$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.765558.2%32 W · 23 L+7.6wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+65.4%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x8e67…e2e6backed MODUS65c299.93$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.844351.2%22 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed MODUS48c297.83$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.9445046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed MODUS33c292.74$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.633644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked 1win45c289.1$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.8529240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x953f…15e6backed 1win58c258.4$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.315064.7%97 W · 53 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MODUS54c255.16$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.42,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed 1win44c227.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.4527737.2%103 W · 174 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed 1win45c212.74$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.0128544.9%128 W · 157 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked MODUS40c209.12$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6532652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x839f…c2cebacked MODUS41c202.25$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2219951.8%103 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked MODUS50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10096645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked MODUS71c199.99$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9937047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked MODUS49c197.84$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9421650.9%110 W · 106 L-25.3wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed 1win56c194.78$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.7347951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MODUS57c188.39$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.611,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa306…a39dbacked MODUS73c180.86$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.0310561%64 W · 41 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56f8…8c55backed MODUS55c180$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994850%24 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0f5…9377backed MODUS29c171.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.72334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-42.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed 1win43c161.37$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.0857654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed MODUS35c138.72$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0439042.1%164 W · 226 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ee9…20a2backed MODUS19c137.02$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.277429.7%22 W · 52 L-8.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b56…9100backed 1win74c133.85$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.442466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c52…677dbacked MODUS51c123.83$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.098746%40 W · 47 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe33d…9512backed MODUS60c120.72$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.333237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab05…52e9backed MODUS49c114.75$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2317448.9%85 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c29…f645backed MODUS11c111.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.312119%4 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9a9…263cbacked MODUS16c105.58$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7724137.3%90 W · 151 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked 1win29c100.88$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.6361057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0702…e5eabacked MODUS44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4440745.5%185 W · 222 L-1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked MODUS63c99.33$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5873554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed 1win62c98.09$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.231,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x127e…cca1backed MODUS47c95.41$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2646150.8%234 W · 227 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c5d…90b3backed 1win50c95.06$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.531080%8 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+73.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed 1win36c91.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.841,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed MODUS67c82.27$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.861,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked MODUS22c79.14$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1695841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa042…5539backed 1win74c76.63$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1817454%94 W · 80 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked MODUS61c63.72$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.820954.5%114 W · 95 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked 1win35c62.51$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3924518.8%46 W · 199 L-31.2wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-46%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3a99…8562backed MODUS24c60.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed 1win68c55.08$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.631,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked 1win74c49.22$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.846872.2%338 W · 130 L+36.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x06d9…7cfbbacked 1win50c45.69$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8120151.2%103 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8d7…406dbacked MODUS36c41.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.046152.5%32 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked 1win37c40.35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5464123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed MODUS71c29.83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.288265.9%54 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9f8…6ef8backed MODUS66c29.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.592060%12 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb19f…1c86backed 1win49c29.66$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.124837.5%18 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76a…47c0backed MODUS51c29.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.026953.6%37 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed 1win47c28.84$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2918954%102 W · 87 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8f3…12a9backed MODUS51c28.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5911739.3%46 W · 71 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed 1win73c27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2965337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed MODUS77c25.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5130647.4%145 W · 161 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked MODUS54c22.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.113452.2%70 W · 64 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65cf…5cdebacked 1win56c20.51$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.031957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cd0…c747backed 1win72c20.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.746167.2%41 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34ec…9468backed 1win78c17.04$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.751060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.