MLB · resolved market
Junior Caminero: Home Runs O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc00ebb79e3a34daa3df0d8536429c8c11317a3ab2638b21beaa9050302f054fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Over | 33c | 6,114$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.17 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 66c | 1,773$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.78 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 25c | 1,323$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.75 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 67c | 1,238$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.56 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…367dbacked Under | 69c | 968.08$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.11 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 66c | 700$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Under | 70c | 533.33$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f5…24adbacked Over | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -57%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 75c | 333.33$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 69c | 302.34$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.73 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 69c | 193$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 70c | 102.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Under | 68c | 73.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 74cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0445…13a3backed Over | 31c | 59.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0aa…7a60backed Under | 74c | 29.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Under | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Under | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Junior Caminero: Home Runs O/U 0.5this page
- Cedric Mullins: Home Runs O/U 0.5Under won
- Daulton Varsho: Home Runs O/U 0.5Under won
- Ian Seymour: Strikeouts O/U 2.5Over won
- Victor Mesa Jr.: Home Runs O/U 0.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.