Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0151556c04bc579d994116c800652b3800221ec4c9cf42f61479e1c2f6c24db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d84…03adbacked Yes | 42c | 772.83$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.14 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 52c | 451.94$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 42c | 260.04$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 233.92$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 213.38$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 41c | 186.36$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.41 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 182.42$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 56c | 176.56$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.58 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 56c | 173.43$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.31 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 144.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 37c | 143.35$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 135$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 112.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 108.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 107.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 99.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 33c | 94.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 61c | 80.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 76.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 74.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 56c | 66.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 56c | 64.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 52c | 64.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 59.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 58c | 57.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 54.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 60c | 53.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 58c | 51.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 40c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 74c | 44.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 43.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 52c | 35.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 32.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 29.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 69c | 25.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 25.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 64c | 15.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.