World Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. acquire Canadian territory in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc017605da04aeb24bed768ca1fad3772c1f2dcf78506f6e868208765ee25aaaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $296,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $291,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $296,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e2e…a483backed Yes | 7c | 23,965$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,757.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 1c | 18,354$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.09 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 8,184$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 4,906$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.6 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 3,600$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,168$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 3,040$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.53 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…245dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,419$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…547abacked Yes | 1c | 2,099$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d5…2a38backed Yes | 8c | 2,040$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 1c | 2,029$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked Yes | 1c | 2,012$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…8deebacked Yes | 1c | 1,935$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 6c | 1,858$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.32 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes | 7c | 1,777$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…aa4cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,721$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 1c | 1,523$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 1c | 1,523$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…11aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5db…d774backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…e2efbacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd03c…68cfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,389$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,382$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5592…278cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,370$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b4…c06abacked Yes | 1c | 1,106$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 7c | 900$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +792.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 6c | 887.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 6c | 730.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 720.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed Yes | 6c | 600$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +87%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 7c | 597.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 551.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 6c | 443.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…bb62backed Yes | 7c | 400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e78fbacked Yes | 8c | 363.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30aa…9afcbacked Yes | 9c | 238.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d07…0e42backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…7b7cbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…7ae0backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1492…97dabacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.