Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-01-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0194bda125a92e3a10b2801ca92d13bf89717531d8a866eed7314b3bab1a1ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 20c | 6,766$1,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,323.89 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ec…351fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,919$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Yes | 21c | 5,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 4,953$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.55 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 21c | 4,579$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.52 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 18c | 3,872$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.88 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 19c | 3,050$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.5 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b62…2e59backed No | 78c | 3,000$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.92 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 21c | 2,407$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.3 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e77…788dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,818$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 19c | 1,500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,419$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.94 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 15c | 1,249$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.28 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Yes | 21c | 1,010$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.1 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe4…e51fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes | 3c | 964$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed No | 78c | 800$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.33 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 19c | 594.74$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…1902backed No | 79c | 550$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed No | 80c | 517.87$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.57 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99cd…8b45backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 78c | 493$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.46 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f7…a6c2backed No | 79c | 450$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 21c | 422.04$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.63 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fd…0095backed No | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e3…f2c9backed No | 79c | 350$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 22c | 300.26$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 21c | 293.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed No | 78c | 255.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…41cfbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7f…3223backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 20c | 202$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…e48dbacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x566e…1340backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yes | 16c | 197.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 8c | 193$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4b…b015backed No | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 16c | 186$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Yes | 21c | 181.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…fca3backed Yes | 18c | 179.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…8ceabacked No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Yes | 21c | 149$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 23c | 146.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 78c | 134.19$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 21c | 115.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 9c | 111$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Yes | 21c | 102.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 21c | 102.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 47 | 85.1%40 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x857b…8eeebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf711…db0bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 76c | 83.28$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Yes | 21c | 82.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 79c | 73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 22c | 70.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 77c | 69.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 23c | 69.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed No | 79c | 60.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked No | 79c | 48.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 22c | 47.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed No | 78c | 43.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…9c83backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed No | 79c | 20.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 75cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4e…069ebacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked No | 80c | 12.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.57 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-01-14?this page
- Will RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?No won
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-01-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.