TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-01-14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$407,954
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$456,632

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $407,954 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 336 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked No45c26,461$11,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,935.471,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked No43c21,545$9,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,264.342941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed No43c20,228$8,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,697.8610553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80cf…427dbacked Yes53c20,000$10,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,40010445.2%47 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x827f…7f59backed Yes54c20,000$10,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,2001553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes55c15,634$8,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,048.9915134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes56c13,492$7,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,938.5433945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b46…8438backed Yes57c12,782$7,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,486.89837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed No45c12,157$5,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,470.624938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Yes57c12,000$6,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1602065%13 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99c4…6655backed No44c11,442$5,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,034.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes57c9,999$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,299.633855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No45c9,299$4,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,207.3675142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No47c7,961$3,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,707.7238748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked No1c7,174$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.226010%6 W · 54 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+119.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed No43c7,000$3,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0101540%6 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes55c6,349$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,848.712842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No46c5,858$2,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,673.3369851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked No45c5,700$2,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5742948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed No46c5,459$2,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,511.32867.9%19 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+29.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No45c5,322$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,389.559831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed No44c4,482$1,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9724658.7%27 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed No46c4,031$1,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,866.1210945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked No44c4,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7601764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked No45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80033244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked No44c4,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.991838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49d1…2a44backed No44c4,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-41.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No34c3,751$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.452,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked No44c3,409$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5005440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2af2…ec6fbacked Yes60c3,331$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.321346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b62…2e59backed Yes54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3804252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Yes55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3509549.5%47 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed No46c2,865$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3182638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Yes54c2,778$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.7815540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Yes55c2,500$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1259854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63df…36c4backed Yes54c2,407$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,107.41742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked No43c2,140$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.87423%17 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed No45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.9911644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked No44c1,800$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.991729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed No44c1,770$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7702948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5543…e1f5backed No45c1,752$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.363721.6%8 W · 29 L-6.0wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-64.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes56c1,734$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.713,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95d8…2922backed Yes55c1,700$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+51.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No45c1,651$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.775052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked No45c1,540$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.843743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed No45c1,520$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.6611056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes55c1,500$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.256547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked No44c1,500$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66027726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb28d…83e4backed No46c1,474$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.01714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-78%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b49…d0dfbacked No42c1,389$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Yes55c1,285$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.453834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked Yes56c1,200$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.995655.4%31 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed No44c1,135$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.182334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe76f…39fcbacked Yes54c1,111$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.111855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86f4…40d5backed No45c1,100$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4956256.5%35 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No44c1,086$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.441,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed No46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.523748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4408248.8%40 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3909…335fbacked No45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4502040%8 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5c9…41b5backed Yes52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No15c993.45$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.0753645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes53c970.71$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.2334144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a24…328abacked Yes55c901.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.091650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked No47c851.06$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4008846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No1c847$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8628241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed No46c828.56$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.69746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes55c800$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.6234342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes51c768.63$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.631338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9264…bca3backed Yes55c724.64$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.682437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7643…fb95backed No44c699.99$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.991662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes54c657.41$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.414252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed No46c652.17$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x274f…fbf4backed No46c650$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012290.9%20 W · 2 L+4.5wins+0.21per pick70cpaid+29.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No44c634$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.9630054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Yes57c626.32$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.321457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes55c625.1$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.234533.3%15 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No45c601$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.4551136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f84…80ebbacked No46c599.98$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x678b…beafbacked Yes51c588.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.24742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No45c581.46$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.1844749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9e7…0febbacked Yes57c557.82$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.862326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-45.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc87b…51d4backed Yes57c526.32$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.32966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes57c526.32$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.325552.7%29 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf60b…c18ebacked No45c520$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2342231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-35.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2060…9186backed Yes54c502.35$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.084658.7%27 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed No47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2353053.3%16 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68d2…92c8backed No50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes58c497.05$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.439451.1%48 W · 46 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2810…a1a8backed No45c475.76$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.417753.2%41 W · 36 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes57c468$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.2449143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc049…7cf6backed Yes54c437$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.021050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No45c420.98$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.1519446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d56…0ba5backed No47c410$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.71464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+27.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Yes57c400$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17111252.7%59 W · 53 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacba…9256backed No45c400$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1803548.6%17 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe351…e48dbacked No46c396.51$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.694938.8%19 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe486…0c26backed Yes51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.163834.2%13 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a46…ba91backed Yes54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.378858%51 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5151…4e57backed Yes54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.374353.5%23 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.