TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$112,945
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$109,945

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,945 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb784…61d0backed No76c60,869$46,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,608.532373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+39.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes23c23,474$5,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,507.943,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes24c16,422$3,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,941.224837.5%18 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes24c13,455$3,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,284.3169851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes24c7,800$1,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,87256547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4466…9ad1backed No75c5,025$3,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.25666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb28d…83e4backed Yes25c4,688$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.94714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-78%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes24c3,879$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.141,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes24c2,437$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.7676234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed No76c1,859$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.8211056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x070a…6ec5backed Yes1c1,699$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes24c1,500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36027726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes28c1,033$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2894533.3%15 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3909…335fbacked No75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2502040%8 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes24c800$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19251136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Yes25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes25c600$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1509746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes25c596.15$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.0422829.4%67 W · 161 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes24c417$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0834342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Yes24c394$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5618545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5151…4e57backed Yes25c370$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.54353.5%23 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes25c369.12$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.288143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4597…272bbacked Yes25c368$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes24c328.51$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8475142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed No75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed No76c257.88$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.881650%8 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Yes24c247.93$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.518746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x54ee…1943backed No68c233.24$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.641546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e6…b6a5backed Yes24c225$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544240.5%17 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+81.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No74c215.17$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7340744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes24c209$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1617251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79a4…3358backed Yes24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d55…1e94backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504219%8 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked Yes24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487335.6%26 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe889…d0c3backed Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522920.7%6 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-49.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c57…40febacked Yes24c188.35$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.21782.4%14 W · 3 L+5.4wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+61.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xf280…b65bbacked Yes24c179.01$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436533.8%22 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Yes25c149.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.54440.9%18 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Yes24c145.87$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0125850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c07…aeb0backed Yes13c133.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-77.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Yes25c127.44$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.865250%26 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe89…d978backed Yes25c126.6$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.65862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2521450%107 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf711…db0bbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-57.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc598…b4acbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253237.5%12 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xacba…9256backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253548.6%17 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247759.7%46 W · 31 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No74c99.99$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2613555.6%75 W · 60 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes26c96.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511250.9%57 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc48…2427backed Yes26c96.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-59.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5ea…52dbbacked Yes25c95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.752462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1acc…8fe0backed Yes25c87.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204242.9%18 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes24c80.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3944749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked No75c80$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.413852.2%72 W · 66 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1b…c38fbacked Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9544…790dbacked Yes25c70$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.511540.9%47 W · 68 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No67c69.7$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0716542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yes21c65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7511045.5%50 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked No75c62.73$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6837344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cf6…801cbacked Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x450f…9479backed No69c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.91968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed No75c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1514756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes25c56.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.242748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x548c…763bbacked Yes25c52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabeb…1d14backed No76c51.97$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.472100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125076%38 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Yes24c48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.522138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2df5…51acbacked Yes28c43.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes24c43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3215134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed No76c32.89$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8911281.3%91 W · 21 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick76cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5163…9a4fbacked Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab85…81e6backed No75c27.97$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.991464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eaa…3ea5backed No77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.972556%14 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x53db…480ebacked No77c25.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32a2…505cbacked No77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.75366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8c8…7c4cbacked No75c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.258555.3%47 W · 38 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x26ae…97b8backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.127466.2%49 W · 25 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c27…1bf3backed No77c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.68520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-74%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed No69c14.74$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5244655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.