MLB · resolved market
Rays vs. Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc029de755b199c7adac537fd9f0eb9b39550026811ccd1d95407d0e50853580c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raysof Rays, Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Marlins | 37c | 7,678$2,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,861.6 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Rays | 57c | 5,317$3,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,293.25 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Rays | 74c | 2,702$1,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.46 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…4534backed Rays | 58c | 2,015$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.3 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…c6b8backed Rays | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…2b6bbacked Marlins | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Marlins | 1c | 1,722$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1331…3d82backed Rays | 61c | 1,643$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.44 | 149 | 66.4%99 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Marlins | 43c | 1,256$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.2 | 444 | 56.5%251 W · 193 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Marlins | 42c | 999.99$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Marlins | 42c | 964.34$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.02 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rays | 58c | 721.66$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.66 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Marlins | 43c | 702.55$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.1 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Marlins | 43c | 666.01$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.08 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Rays | 60c | 600.32$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.03 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Marlins | 43c | 499.98$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Marlins | 44c | 480.53$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.43 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Marlins | 42c | 470.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Rays | 64c | 469.21$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.21 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Marlins | 48c | 462.5$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Rays | 58c | 455.73$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.41 | 140 | 50.7%71 W · 69 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Marlins | 2c | 440$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 876 | 2.9%25 W · 851 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce9…7a2cbacked Rays | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 206 | 45.1%93 W · 113 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Rays | 58c | 420$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.4 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Rays | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Rays | 80c | 337.5$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Rays | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rays | 60c | 270.34$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.59 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Rays | 57c | 233$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.19 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Marlins | 42c | 183.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.16 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Rays | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e12…7348backed Rays | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 384 | 55.7%214 W · 170 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Rays | 72c | 147.85$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Marlins | 42c | 85.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c88…5685backed Marlins | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d27…f6cfbacked Marlins | 18c | 77.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Marlins | 39c | 76.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Rays | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d6…825abacked Rays | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Marlins | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Rays | 59c | 66.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Marlins | 42c | 53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c5…9a0ebacked Marlins | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 708 | 41.4%293 W · 415 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Rays | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Rays | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…3a83backed Marlins | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35bd…92b6backed Marlins | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Rays | 57c | 45.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdd…c765backed Rays | 58c | 44.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7910…0224backed Marlins | 42c | 44.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Marlins | 41c | 44.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Rays | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Marlins | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4590…989abacked Marlins | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec6…b777backed Marlins | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe876…9586backed Rays | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…c36cbacked Rays | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Marlins | 45c | 33.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…3b80backed Marlins | 42c | 30.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Marlins | 42c | 30.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…a899backed Marlins | 42c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa544…2d66backed Rays | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…5675backed Rays | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…62d9backed Rays | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Rays | 59c | 21.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.