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MLB · resolved market

Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Texas Rangersof Houston Astros, Texas Rangers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,695
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,698

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,695 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers76c2,141$1,623 inWon+$518.2711,65352.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L+214.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Houston Astros26c2,088$533 inLost-$533.384,42747.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L-77.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Houston Astros44c681.82$300 inLost-$30026747.9%128 W · 139 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Texas Rangers56c500$280 inWon+$22031752.7%167 W · 150 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Houston Astros23c404.2$94 inLost-$93.854,20150.2%2,109 W · 2,092 L+94.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Houston Astros35c368.04$128 inLost-$127.6829549.8%147 W · 148 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers68c308.77$209 inWon+$99.6511,10251.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L+135.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Houston Astros43c302.64$130 inLost-$130.146459.4%38 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+30.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Texas Rangers56c237.98$133 inWon+$104.712,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ed2…0ddabacked Houston Astros44c204.95$90 inLost-$89.8157747.7%275 W · 302 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Texas Rangers57c157.89$90 inWon+$67.8996848.8%472 W · 496 L-42.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Houston Astros21c147.34$31 inLost-$30.891,25844%553 W · 705 L-33.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Houston Astros44c114.7$50 inLost-$5068942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers56c97.38$55 inWon+$42.857,07850.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L+1.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Texas Rangers58c94.49$54 inWon+$40.043,46751.2%1,775 W · 1,692 L+105.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc07…5ccabacked Texas Rangers57c87.72$50 inWon+$37.721346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed Texas Rangers57c84$48 inWon+$36.1246854.5%255 W · 213 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Texas Rangers57c84$48 inWon+$36.1272154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Texas Rangers78c78.34$61 inWon+$16.845,86143.7%2,562 W · 3,299 L-190.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Texas Rangers56c58.93$33 inWon+$25.933,86642.3%1,636 W · 2,230 L+4.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Texas Rangers78c58$45 inWon+$12.641,82249.2%897 W · 925 L-25.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Texas Rangers57c56.25$32 inWon+$24.193,03648%1,458 W · 1,578 L+16.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Texas Rangers58c51.88$30 inWon+$21.885750.9%29 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros23c51.52$12 inLost-$11.712,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93a2…5181backed Houston Astros36c35.78$13 inLost-$12.8319542.6%83 W · 112 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x522f…1164backed Houston Astros42c34$14 inLost-$14.2839250.3%197 W · 195 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Texas Rangers55c21.38$12 inWon+$9.622,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Texas Rangers71c19.65$14 inWon+$5.6394069.3%651 W · 289 L+93.5wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+14%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.