MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef8e8fe0992b3a9b436ef4b0bfc365f5fe6d3a57883ff3278c39e756002cfc0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x462d…ce9bbacked Under | 51c | 6,082$3,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,096.51 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 5,795$2,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,939.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 50c | 2,202$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.27 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 50c | 1,971$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.5 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 50c | 1,352$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 45c | 994.49$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.37 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 50c | 908.06$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.95 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 59c | 703$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.77 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 51c | 417.05$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.35 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 49c | 411.87$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.7 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 410.14$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.91 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 39c | 319$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.07 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 8c | 229.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 50c | 228$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.86 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 62c | 216.19$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.99 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 51c | 170.83$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.71 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 47c | 169.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.95 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 163.91$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 49c | 159.14$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 48c | 142.1$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 60c | 135.47$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 132.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.83 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 44c | 131.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 49c | 131$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 104.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 61c | 102.05$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Under | 42c | 101.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 17c | 100.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…6978backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…b569backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 51c | 99.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 52c | 91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 42c | 67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 31c | 61.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 69c | 61.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 54c | 61.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 53c | 60.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5a…aa7abacked Under | 78c | 54.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Under | 49c | 53.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 49c | 51.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 49c | 49.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 51c | 45.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 35c | 43.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 192 | 52.6%101 W · 91 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 43c | 39.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 52c | 38.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 52c | 38.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Over | 57c | 38.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 46c | 37.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Over | 49c | 35.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 61c | 32.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 53c | 32.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…81f6backed Over | 51c | 24.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 48c | 24.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb515…7e2bbacked Under | 78c | 20.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 53c | 18.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.