Dota2 · resolved market
1win to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc04b3c0e75a90cfb6aa72b15db732ddf32ac41c1b0f5d54dac938ea1be3c861a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 32c | 2,274$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.45 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 27c | 1,600$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.28 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 68c | 1,170$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.46 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Yes | 80c | 1,107$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.63 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 61c | 1,086$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.32 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked No | 30c | 1,034$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.19 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed No | 20c | 927$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.4 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 37c | 926.76$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.88 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2776…4ecbbacked Yes | 65c | 917$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.4 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…d450backed No | 33c | 728.87$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.53 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…ca87backed No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa981…ab19backed No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 69c | 545.22$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.82 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed No | 34c | 509$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.61 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Yes | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…4e8dbacked Yes | 74c | 377.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Yes | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed No | 34c | 291.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 58c | 235$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.35 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…62c7backed Yes | 68c | 168.11$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 50c | 156.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.37 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 68c | 125.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Yes | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Yes | 77c | 27.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…4419backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Yes | 69c | 21.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Yes | 72c | 17.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Yes | 69c | 16.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1win to win 2-0?this page
- Inner Circle vs 1win: Draw (1-1)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.