Tennis · resolved market
Pan Pacific Open: Marketa Vondrousova vs Karolina Muchova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc05152b39e01e177884cdef458ad6ca72a8cb1295f2ffcd9826f52ac5b79652d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Muchovaof Vondrousova, Muchova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $490,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $559,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $490,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7606…2836backed Muchova | 59c | 222,852$131,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91,824.38 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Vondrousova | 41c | 72,059$29,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,609.12 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Vondrousova | 41c | 50,000$20,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,500 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef02…4f7ebacked Vondrousova | 0c | 10,330$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Vondrousova | 42c | 9,640$4,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,026.15 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Vondrousova | 40c | 7,833$3,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,138.33 | 158 | 32.9%52 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…2280backed Muchova | 61c | 6,591$3,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,601.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Muchova | 61c | 4,999$3,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,949.75 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Vondrousova | 38c | 3,748$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.44 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283d…0dadbacked Muchova | 60c | 2,500$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Vondrousova | 42c | 2,500$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.9 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…e4c2backed Vondrousova | 5c | 2,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Vondrousova | 45c | 1,978$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Vondrousova | 39c | 1,400$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Vondrousova | 41c | 1,125$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.33 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…4734backed Vondrousova | 43c | 893.66$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.27 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…1ccbbacked Vondrousova | 41c | 733.34$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Vondrousova | 41c | 729$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.89 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Muchova | 60c | 658.55$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.42 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Muchova | 60c | 636.36$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.66 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…a1b6backed Vondrousova | 21c | 542.9$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Vondrousova | 43c | 510.67$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.03 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4692…0feebacked Vondrousova | 40c | 499.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Vondrousova | 44c | 461$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.77 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Vondrousova | 42c | 452.39$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Vondrousova | 40c | 428$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.2 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Muchova | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed Muchova | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Vondrousova | 23c | 250.34$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Vondrousova | 40c | 166.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Muchova | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…745ebacked Vondrousova | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…333bbacked Vondrousova | 43c | 47.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Muchova | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Vondrousova | 43c | 28.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Vondrousova | 40c | 27.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.