Mls · resolved market
Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc05c4a7c19d04b650717fecabc9e36a3098880c8e3670c70d534701410882e1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,811 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 8,096$5,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,178.77 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 3,000$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.8 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…14f5backed Yes | 25c | 2,157$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 27c | 1,084$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.78 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa83b…0e4abacked Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Yes | 24c | 612.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 27c | 601.62$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.04 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 75c | 561.8$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.78 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…f8fdbacked Yes | 26c | 315.38$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 281.88$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…c5d0backed No | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 245.78$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 27c | 228$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 77c | 192.56$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 7c | 188.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 76c | 188$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Yes | 17c | 178.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Yes | 26c | 165$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf4…8c98backed Yes | 27c | 157.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 24c | 149.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 89 | 19.1%17 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 144.13$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 14c | 143.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 25c | 111.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 77c | 108.42$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb4…1eb1backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +61%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 25c | 102.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…bf23backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…9dcabacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 24c | 94.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 25c | 91.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 22c | 84.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…77dfbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc909…c315backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0110…af5dbacked Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 77c | 67.77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Yes | 25c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 26c | 58.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 24c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 27c | 54.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Yes | 22c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x984a…2726backed Yes | 25c | 40.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 76c | 36.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed No | 75c | 33.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…13a3backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 74c | 22.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c87…7f4abacked No | 76c | 16.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?this page
- Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-03-15?No won
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-03-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.