Champions League · resolved market
Will Monaco beat Red Star Belgrade
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc06f75dc0bf061e5ba0a5ab5121b8a73a9d960fd2d4e5dab3e0dc700e711387e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…4173backed No | 25c | 2,328$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.88 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5231…1f75backed Yes | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.97 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 69c | 1,190$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.38 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…5b74backed No | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Yes | 71c | 840.34$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.7 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 74c | 660.27$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.67 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 76c | 658.03$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.94 | 138 | 47.1%65 W · 73 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed No | 24c | 657.24$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 14c | 559.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.13 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 72c | 450$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe9…f4e5backed Yes | 74c | 325.08$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 25c | 286.34$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.59 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…b9cfbacked No | 17c | 250$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 34c | 150$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22dd…33c0backed Yes | 74c | 143.24$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…2d66backed Yes | 74c | 139.01$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ef…2891backed Yes | 74c | 136.49$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…cdd5backed Yes | 74c | 133.78$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…806ebacked No | 29c | 127.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x487f…30babacked Yes | 73c | 125$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…7e54backed No | 27c | 125$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e0…0b77backed No | 29c | 120.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…1032backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ab…a5dabacked Yes | 74c | 93.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 76c | 53.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…7fe3backed Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca93…5355backed Yes | 75c | 50.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 73c | 38.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22bf…782dbacked Yes | 73c | 38.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…bdb0backed Yes | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.27per pick | 62cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…1151backed Yes | 74c | 15.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a8…8d58backed Yes | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Monaco beat Red Star Belgradethis page
- Will Red Star Belgrade beat Monaco?No won
- Will the match between Monaco and Red Star Belgrade end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.