Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0aa2eeb7c7846af2753d8392a1a4f7569b812ba76d4d05868c329225f32a78e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 4c | 445.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 25c | 397.46$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 312.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 308.2$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 299.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 72c | 245.14$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.41 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 224.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 222.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 10c | 190.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 177.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 162.64$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 18c | 160.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 33c | 145.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 144.06$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 19c | 130.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7a…bc5cbacked Yes | 8c | 127$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 102.82$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 79c | 101.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 82.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 22c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 79.17$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 27c | 74.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 20c | 71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 63.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 63.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 32c | 63.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 75c | 59.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 29c | 59.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 56.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a3…7723backed Yes | 25c | 56.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 54.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…9ecfbacked Yes | 31c | 52.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 73c | 50.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 78c | 49.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 25c | 48.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 27c | 46.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 68c | 42.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 42.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 72c | 40.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f9…cf15backed No | 75c | 39.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 74c | 39.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 27c | 37.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 80c | 36.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c77…ff72backed No | 80c | 36.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 67c | 29.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 28.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 71c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 75c | 27.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 72c | 26.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 71c | 26.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…fe76backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 72c | 25.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 69c | 24.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 24.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 80c | 23.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 73c | 22.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23e…2623backed No | 80c | 21.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 19.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 75c | 17.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 17.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9e6cbacked No | 69c | 16.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 71c | 16.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…37a2backed No | 74c | 15.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 75cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 74c | 15.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 72c | 14.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 14.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.