Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf28987c5f5bdfc4052202d39e2656acd43c46aada701d7011a55cacd35d2dd9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 18c | 778.4$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.27 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 19c | 638.09$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.52 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 504.39$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 414.39$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed No | 14c | 394.18$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked No | 3c | 342.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 61c | 321.39$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.7 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed No | 64c | 299.97$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.98 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…bf1abacked No | 66c | 291.98$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.24 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked No | 42c | 264.58$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.24 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 253.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed No | 6c | 238.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 6c | 226.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 47c | 203.4$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.26 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 52c | 199.91$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.05 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed No | 7c | 190.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 7c | 178.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 47c | 158.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.67 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 155.02$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.09 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 41c | 145.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.15 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 65c | 131.88$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.85 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 45c | 129.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.19 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 49c | 125.82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 119.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.91 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 64c | 118.76$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.18 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 46c | 110.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ae…d85cbacked Yes | 43c | 109.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 106.96$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 55c | 103.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 10c | 103.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…070cbacked No | 47c | 94.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 39c | 93.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 91.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa045…282abacked Yes | 43c | 89.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed Yes | 56c | 89.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 85.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 29c | 82.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 37c | 82.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 56c | 81.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…3db6backed Yes | 60c | 78.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 21c | 77.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 74.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 46c | 73.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 18c | 68.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 36c | 65.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 51c | 62.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 29c | 62.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 49c | 60.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 52c | 59.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…d480backed Yes | 69c | 56.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3274…4493backed No | 25c | 55.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 49c | 52.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 46c | 51.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 49c | 50.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…7b38backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +59%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 49.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 48.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc09b…38e2backed Yes | 36c | 46.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 46.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65f…4329backed Yes | 40c | 46.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 54c | 44.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 43.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 60c | 43.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 47c | 39.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 36c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 64c | 38.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 46c | 35.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241d…4bf3backed No | 53c | 35.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 36c | 32.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 32.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…c5eabacked Yes | 47c | 32.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 45c | 31.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 35c | 29.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 36c | 28.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 50c | 26.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 78c | 24.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…4bcdbacked Yes | 46c | 22.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 61c | 21.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…1252backed Yes | 79c | 19.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 17.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…72babacked Yes | 69c | 14.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.