Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02787987af0495429418f053944d285fb07dac6be63ab024af097da52a172824
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 12c | 673.09$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.49 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 23c | 530.98$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.6 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 11c | 359.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 333.74$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 61c | 327$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.53 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 13c | 306.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes | 5c | 299.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 292.67$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 289.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed No | 71c | 273.78$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 205.56$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked No | 77c | 196.93$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 194.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 41c | 183.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 31c | 177.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…bf1abacked Yes | 63c | 142.26$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 72c | 138.87$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 38c | 136.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 29c | 136.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed No | 75c | 130.62$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 44c | 126.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 41c | 123.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 19c | 115.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa045…282abacked Yes | 68c | 99.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0638…df07backed Yes | 29c | 97.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 19c | 94.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 72c | 92.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed Yes | 57c | 91.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 90.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.61 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 62c | 82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 75c | 79.17$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 76.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 28c | 75.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 29c | 71.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b57…37aabacked Yes | 21c | 70.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 32c | 70.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 74c | 64.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 32c | 55.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 51.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc09b…38e2backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 28c | 42.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 41.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 50c | 36.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 67c | 33.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 77c | 31.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 43c | 31.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…41eebacked No | 49c | 29.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 27.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 72c | 27.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 62c | 26.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 61c | 25.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 24.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71a2…e17dbacked No | 78c | 22.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 21.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 21.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 72c | 19.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 80c | 18.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 64c | 18.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 71c | 15.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 74c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 76c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.