Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0be030762830b2846b57156f5238d79754247846f9124d474ce6a8e49ae44ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 48c | 915.69$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.65 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 50c | 833.72$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.72 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 53c | 522.59$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.47 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 45c | 248$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.35 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 238.03$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.68 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 36c | 225.5$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5c…42f0backed Yes | 47c | 215.58$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 211.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…80adbacked No | 52c | 190.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 53c | 189.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ff11backed Yes | 42c | 183.74$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 9c | 166.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 149.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 22c | 130.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 49c | 123.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 108.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 92.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 54c | 90.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 57c | 87.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 38c | 86.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 60c | 73.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 45c | 72.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 46c | 60.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 58.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 44c | 45.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 46c | 43.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 40c | 42.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 31c | 41.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 49c | 40.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 52c | 37.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 60c | 35.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 61c | 32.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 46c | 32.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…64f8backed Yes | 47c | 31.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 46c | 30.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 66c | 28.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 51c | 27.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 55c | 24.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 62c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…a8b8backed No | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ff…3abfbacked No | 71c | 16.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.