Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9be948d25998c09ab307ead7ba8e7d3888378c2ae209d649c3c6779767d565f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 51c | 2,066$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.37 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed No | 41c | 919.66$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.23 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 53c | 733.07$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.22 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 680$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 55c | 581.5$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.45 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 24c | 361.93$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 48c | 325$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.15 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0a…a70bbacked Yes | 64c | 318.2$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 47c | 275.36$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.28 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 269.57$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.33 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 41c | 233.53$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.69 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 197.56$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.46 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 171.95$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 170.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 37c | 157.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 152.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 44c | 149.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.59 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 64c | 138.72$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b5…4558backed No | 34c | 137$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ff11backed Yes | 63c | 135.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 119.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 48c | 113.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 33c | 105.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 32c | 105.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 44c | 100.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 59c | 90.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…b2f0backed No | 68c | 74.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 79c | 62.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…922ebacked Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 54c | 55.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 21c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 52.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 60c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 66c | 39.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 48c | 38.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 49c | 37.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 40c | 31.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 71c | 30.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 64c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 70c | 28.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 70c | 28.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed Yes | 71c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 44c | 25.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 65c | 25.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52a…58b6backed No | 47c | 24.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 64c | 24.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 54c | 23.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 50c | 23.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 48c | 23.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 51c | 23.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 22.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c1…8205backed No | 65c | 20.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 63c | 19.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.