Asian League · resolved market
Will V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0c9141a2e27dcbb4be45c251f8a3af01373651815d0616c95e5d61199715be6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 23c | 2,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 245 | 23.3%57 W · 188 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 74c | 1,649$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.7 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 1,643$1,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.3 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…6b59backed Yes | 30c | 700$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 6c | 451.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 935 | 35.2%329 W · 606 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 215 | 52.1%112 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 26c | 388.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -9.6wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Yes | 27c | 315.37$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked No | 70c | 230.74$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.22 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…cc46backed Yes | 30c | 220$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec9e…2868backed Yes | 27c | 189.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 75c | 188.5$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 70c | 156$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 26c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 72c | 61.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 70c | 61.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 1,749 | 50.7%887 W · 862 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 30c | 54.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 24c | 52.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b4…7d38backed Yes | 25c | 51.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 74c | 46.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed Yes | 27c | 40.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 74c | 31.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd88…2871backed No | 71c | 30.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7f…298dbacked No | 76c | 15.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9f…8473backed No | 79c | 14.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-05-30?No won
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.