F1 · resolved market
Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0d05d2dc8cecadf6c039f102e6a49da8c4862bced0d1f7c2f65a5f8b1a3854f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked No | 62c | 6,270$3,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,379.6 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 36c | 6,071$2,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,188.33 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 64c | 2,773$1,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.16 | 144 | 58.3%84 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…cc46backed Yes | 42c | 2,381$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 64c | 1,771$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.41 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b64…aa5cbacked Yes | 35c | 1,537$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.39 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 41c | 1,352$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.41 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33fc…cee6backed Yes | 37c | 1,336$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 58c | 964.08$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.22 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 940.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed Yes | 40c | 919$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed No | 49c | 703.09$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…f4e0backed Yes | 46c | 652.08$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 60c | 616.22$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.39 | 112 | 66.1%74 W · 38 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 35c | 610$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.81 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…a9dabacked No | 65c | 477.06$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…9782backed No | 63c | 349.61$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 65c | 328.75$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.85 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 37c | 325$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 62c | 310.1$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.36 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 67c | 273.3$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 68c | 260.69$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed No | 52c | 220$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +49%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 60c | 198.46$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.66 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2af…e3bcbacked No | 53c | 165$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 60c | 157.64$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +8.3wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 62c | 148.88$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e56…041ebacked Yes | 36c | 148$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…ed0dbacked No | 62c | 136.83$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9528…5596backed Yes | 52c | 114.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…8037backed Yes | 47c | 106.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…e5f0backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 34c | 87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Yes | 34c | 82.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4d…6222backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…1b76backed Yes | 40c | 72.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x472b…1e16backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…2addbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 54.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe12a…040abacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b4…8194backed Yes | 38c | 52.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…4c5abacked Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Yes | 35c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7039…1a17backed Yes | 50c | 23.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb845…45d8backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9301…3b67backed No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?this page
- Will Oscar Piastri achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
- Will Yuki Tsunoda achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.