Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc13518bd4a11e16ead5e26c9311b162c48ede20a6695257b48f800dd6d4e49f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 2c | 697.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 3c | 484.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 3c | 379.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 303.14$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 22c | 206.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 33c | 206.81$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.57 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 34c | 160$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 13c | 146$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 134.24$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 22c | 125$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 112.49$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 32c | 109.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 99.24$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 98.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 28c | 96.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d44…40dfbacked Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 79.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 75.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26a…625cbacked No | 78c | 64.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 71cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 63.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…1acdbacked Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bc…60bcbacked Yes | 31c | 35.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 33.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 68c | 32.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 70c | 30.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 68c | 30.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 67c | 20.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 77c | 19.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 74c | 18.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 17.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 16.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 73c | 16.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 15.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.