Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65ff01712018a6bbe741a3d7c04967eee484ae1924c56cf8b3ad24ed945a1ebe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 20c | 834.23$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.18 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 560.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 380.6$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 361.75$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.25 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 352.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 26c | 330.34$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.09 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 290.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 15c | 277.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 10c | 276.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 256.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 19c | 223.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 223.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 174.86$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.08 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 170.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea7…1523backed Yes | 78c | 144.26$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 16c | 143$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 41c | 127.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 10c | 119.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 24c | 117.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 67c | 111.87$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.31 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 107.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 103.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.55 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 14c | 98.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.77 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8292…0482backed Yes | 25c | 94.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 28c | 94.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 55c | 93.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 76c | 89.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 48c | 83.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 53c | 76.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 64c | 75.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 41c | 73.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 15c | 72.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 23c | 72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 25c | 68.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 22c | 68.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 16c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed Yes | 80c | 62.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…ac42backed No | 21c | 58.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 20c | 55.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 20c | 53.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 77c | 51.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 80c | 50.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 44c | 49.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 21c | 49.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3267…da9ebacked Yes | 35c | 42.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 54c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde86…f015backed Yes | 52c | 40.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 55c | 32.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6f65…ae86backed No | 67c | 32.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 58c | 30.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 29.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 28.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed No | 70c | 28.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 40c | 27.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 51c | 22.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 54c | 20.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…5630backed No | 78c | 19.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.8wins | -0.42per pick | 64cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 18.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 73c | 16.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 73c | 16.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.