Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07dddc66473ecc1ce3d9ca520c5fcbc49e1bd56c659d0fa079418d4605b35a4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f89…5619backed Yes | 0c | 21,399$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 2c | 688.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 386.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 383.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 32c | 365$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.38 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 9c | 314.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 313.95$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.76 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 28c | 245.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f65…ae86backed No | 78c | 244.13$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 72c | 208.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 10c | 195.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 187.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 19c | 185.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 184.26$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 181.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 16c | 168.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 167.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 146.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 11c | 131.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 32c | 127.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 14c | 121.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 119.63$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 11c | 115.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 23c | 114.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fae…4b53backed Yes | 13c | 113.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 12c | 103.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 34c | 103.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 101.11$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 68c | 100.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 68c | 98.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 26c | 87.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 82.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 16c | 80.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…6eb1backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 67c | 77.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c63…8448backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 68c | 73.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed Yes | 20c | 70.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 76c | 67.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked Yes | 21c | 67.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 28c | 59.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 73c | 58.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 72c | 56.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 25c | 56.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 51.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 48.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 32c | 43.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…1acdbacked Yes | 28c | 43.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 29c | 42.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed No | 77c | 39.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 38.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 77c | 32.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…bfe2backed Yes | 32c | 31.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 24.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 70c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 71c | 19.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 18.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 17.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…0307backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 73c | 16.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 16.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 15.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.