Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc14934a068ab69cab57e31101356bc3e5cb6797b069bc556df43ac7752458919
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 38c | 1,500$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.72 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 62c | 1,116$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.77 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 438.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 58c | 255.52$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.01 | 554 | 22.4%124 W · 430 L | -21.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 251.95$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.42 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 41c | 240.13$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.64 | 691 | 50.5%349 W · 342 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 79c | 177.45$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.48 | 344 | 58.7%202 W · 142 L | +18.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 68c | 174.9$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.16 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 159.54$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 157$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.91 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 70c | 128.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 309 | 67%207 W · 102 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 61c | 127.19$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 31c | 118.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.61 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 112.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.35 | 1,472 | 34.8%512 W · 960 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 33c | 98.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 31c | 96.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 96.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 90.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 37c | 88.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 36c | 85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72bc…a7dabacked Yes | 73c | 82.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3122…9d2fbacked Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…7df1backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 31c | 67.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 30c | 67.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | +32.0wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 65.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 71c | 62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 580 | 53.4%310 W · 270 L | -26.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 68c | 56.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 54.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 64c | 52.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc4…a136backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 38c | 49.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 49.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 22c | 46.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 378 | 43.7%165 W · 213 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 71c | 44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 43c | 39.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 649 | 76.9%499 W · 150 L | +100.8wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe4…f53bbacked Yes | 79c | 38.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 35.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 34c | 35.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 294 | 49%144 W · 150 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 67c | 34.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed Yes | 73c | 32.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 57c | 32.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 410 | 41.5%170 W · 240 L | +33.3wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 77c | 29.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 29.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked Yes | 36c | 29.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 70c | 24.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,926 | 62.8%1,210 W · 716 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 67c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 55c | 23.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec93…f56bbacked Yes | 72c | 21.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e34…2c47backed No | 70c | 17.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 74c | 14.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.