MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc14ba3c1aef062e6e253427f03309203e3d2baccfebe5195f6581163cd4a1118
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 1,387$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 61c | 1,355$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.54 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4d…3f0bbacked Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 70c | 855.47$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.23 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 28c | 500$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 30c | 488.15$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.58 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 80c | 408$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Over | 72c | 275$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 176 | 52.8%93 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 74c | 138$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.12 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 131$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.94 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 31c | 106.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 49c | 62.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 35c | 56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Over | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 31c | 49.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 46.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Over | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 135 | 65.2%88 W · 47 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…a258backed Under | 67c | 37.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Over | 61c | 23.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.