MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdbb3d2bb3e83e3d71e6dfcdf17ab5ba7d9f7de1e8b34a5195b19813acfe6f44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Washington Nationals | 60c | 5,621$3,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,238.07 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 3,780$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.12 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 3,099$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,878.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Atlanta Braves | 73c | 667.74$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.45 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 27c | 544$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Atlanta Braves | 35c | 464$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.98 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Atlanta Braves | 34c | 358.82$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 228 | 31.6%72 W · 156 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Atlanta Braves | 36c | 215.33$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 201.73$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 126.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Washington Nationals | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f31…2d48backed Atlanta Braves | 71c | 71.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 29c | 71.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 59.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Washington Nationals | 27c | 54.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Atlanta Braves | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Washington Nationals | 68c | 48.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bc…352ebacked Washington Nationals | 69c | 43.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Atlanta Braves | 45c | 39.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 34.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 34.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Atlanta Braves | 71c | 24.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x692c…aadebacked Washington Nationals | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Atlanta Braves | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.