MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd03d644fb6090d6910eff01ea59ba4d07bcf14bb0c818a32482e110e156d3459
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Over | 61c | 12,856$7,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,888 | 435 | 54%235 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5b…3f6abacked Over | 30c | 10,413$3,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,123.92 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 38c | 6,215$2,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,853.35 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 39c | 1,882$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.02 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 38c | 1,300$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.38 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 30c | 1,060$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 40c | 812.04$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.23 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 39c | 663.67$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.84 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 78c | 411$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 40c | 400$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 39c | 399$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.39 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 38c | 308.82$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.47 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under | 41c | 207.17$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.23 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 40c | 168$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Over | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…12d6backed Over | 61c | 163.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 39c | 162.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 59c | 151$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.09 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 30c | 117$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 39c | 112.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.91 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 30c | 94.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b4…70eabacked Over | 62c | 48.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd30f…eea0backed Over | 30c | 46.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…7406backed Over | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 59c | 23.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.