MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e7459f14486a5c03798471ac00dc17f9fdfeaa3dda2372e7e1397627ced79b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b5c…4960backed Under | 50c | 19,838$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,837.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 11,165$5,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,696.76 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Under | 47c | 7,000$3,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,710 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.99 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 49c | 4,454$2,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,182.58 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 51c | 2,029$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.99 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 50c | 1,710$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 48c | 1,396$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.88 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 49c | 1,282$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.97 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 49c | 1,282$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.97 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 48c | 1,200$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 51c | 1,200$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.99 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 51c | 1,140$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.71 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 53c | 1,111$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.83 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 51c | 980.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.24 | 384 | 53.6%206 W · 178 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 51c | 797$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.46 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 51c | 793.23$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.55 | 570 | 53.3%304 W · 266 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 49c | 749.99$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.5 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 49c | 719.96$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.2 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…3927backed Over | 55c | 545.51$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 490$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 52c | 386.4$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.76 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 253.49$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.48 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 49c | 223.78$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.1 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 49c | 174$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.74 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 51c | 148.47$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 140$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 125$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 22c | 117.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Over | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 22c | 107.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Over | 54c | 91.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 592 | 52.7%312 W · 280 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bc…352ebacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 47c | 40.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 50c | 40.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 45c | 30.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf604…4976backed Over | 53c | 27.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3056…2b09backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Over | 52c | 19.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.