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MLB · resolved market

Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Washington Nationalsof Atlanta Braves, Washington Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$88,112
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$99,078

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,112 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Washington Nationals57c11,238$6,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,832.231,43649.3%708 W · 728 L-6.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Atlanta Braves45c11,219$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00025245.6%115 W · 137 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…d62abacked Atlanta Braves48c10,447$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00024344.4%108 W · 135 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Washington Nationals54c7,178$3,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,315.2792854%501 W · 427 L+22.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed Atlanta Braves46c7,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20044851.6%231 W · 217 L+0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Washington Nationals55c5,753$3,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,589.022,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Washington Nationals53c5,223$2,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,479.422,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals54c5,143$2,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,346.3111,60652.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L+210.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Washington Nationals56c3,640$2,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,601.61,92453.4%1,028 W · 896 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Atlanta Braves43c3,488$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001,59348.6%774 W · 819 L-1.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Atlanta Braves47c3,161$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.344,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca28…49debacked Atlanta Braves44c2,275$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.995050%25 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Washington Nationals55c2,115$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.7517248.8%84 W · 88 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Atlanta Braves43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86067250.1%337 W · 335 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Washington Nationals53c1,877$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.8965949.2%324 W · 335 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals75c1,714$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.3211,05451.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L+137.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals52c1,521$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.995,51750.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L+26.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals54c1,400$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.317,04650.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L+2.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Atlanta Braves35c1,398$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.173,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Atlanta Braves47c1,180$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.894837.5%18 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcd2…43f3backed Atlanta Braves46c1,097$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa77a…e6f9backed Atlanta Braves13c1,055$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.149346.2%43 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Atlanta Braves45c1,038$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.24557.8%26 W · 19 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd508…0009backed Washington Nationals52c1,010$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.8580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+50.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Atlanta Braves43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4301,84950.7%937 W · 912 L-5.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87fe…3cbebacked Washington Nationals52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4801573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+34.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5006…48cabacked Atlanta Braves45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef88…d62cbacked Washington Nationals52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8cc…015bbacked Washington Nationals52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4806453.1%34 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7225…9c44backed Washington Nationals52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4801100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1362…f403backed Washington Nationals52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4802860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Washington Nationals55c990.53$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.451,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Washington Nationals53c754.72$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.7212449.2%61 W · 63 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves14c752.8$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.698,25146.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L+41.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals53c670$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.8812,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Atlanta Braves47c650$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.573748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Washington Nationals54c599.18$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.972,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c91…b4d2backed Washington Nationals57c524.17$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.4912752.8%67 W · 60 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad64…2f33backed Atlanta Braves48c520.83$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2506429.7%19 W · 45 L-7.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Washington Nationals56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22055052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Washington Nationals52c481$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.881,54348.6%750 W · 793 L-5.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Washington Nationals54c463$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.9841051.7%212 W · 198 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67e3…f0adbacked Atlanta Braves46c463$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-55.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Atlanta Braves43c411.05$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.751,97053.1%1,047 W · 923 L+45.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Atlanta Braves44c350$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15448354.7%264 W · 219 L+20.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Atlanta Braves43c340$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.882636.6%302 W · 524 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0a2…3c41backed Atlanta Braves48c312.5$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15015857%90 W · 68 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Atlanta Braves42c303.14$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.911,73450.4%874 W · 860 L+57.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Washington Nationals57c287.59$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.6628154.4%153 W · 128 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0b4…9dc2backed Atlanta Braves44c246.73$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.569147.3%43 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals59c242.6$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.198,45147.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L+81.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Washington Nationals51c219.53$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.5749358.8%290 W · 203 L+30.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Washington Nationals56c212.56$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.531,25558.3%732 W · 523 L+25.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Atlanta Braves44c189.68$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4667047.9%321 W · 349 L-3.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Atlanta Braves48c185.42$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8912061.7%74 W · 46 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1c5…6b9abacked Atlanta Braves9c152.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.63043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc36…d35dbacked Atlanta Braves44c149.66$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.85771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+27.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e79…10c0backed Atlanta Braves45c127.78$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.56369.8%44 W · 19 L+8.9wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+26.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeded…bfe9backed Atlanta Braves8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105738.6%22 W · 35 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals55c120.08$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.083,85742.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L+3.8wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Atlanta Braves44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5067248.5%326 W · 346 L+2.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca96…06f6backed Atlanta Braves44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Atlanta Braves44c110$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5257744.4%256 W · 321 L-36.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Atlanta Braves45c102.02$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.911,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4193…4853backed Atlanta Braves43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4384651.5%436 W · 410 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Washington Nationals53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4775753.2%403 W · 354 L+24.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb21…3138backed Washington Nationals56c89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.166947.8%33 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals55c86.1$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.682,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Atlanta Braves40c80.89$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.712,06439.2%810 W · 1,254 L-29.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f50…069bbacked Atlanta Braves45c80$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3616345.4%74 W · 89 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Washington Nationals79c70$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.747589.1%423 W · 52 L+84.9wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+25%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Atlanta Braves43c69.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3055051.3%282 W · 268 L+30.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Atlanta Braves44c68.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3062554.2%339 W · 286 L+18.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Washington Nationals53c67.8$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8730854.2%167 W · 141 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Atlanta Braves43c66.22$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4747749.9%238 W · 239 L+18.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa188…62eabacked Atlanta Braves46c65.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3025648%123 W · 133 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Atlanta Braves48c62.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Atlanta Braves39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.43,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+147.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Washington Nationals53c57.19$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8829354.9%161 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Washington Nationals53c51.7$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.31,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Atlanta Braves44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Washington Nationals57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.51,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Atlanta Braves43c49.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.51,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb69b…9ce7backed Atlanta Braves44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209145.1%41 W · 50 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x476b…0afabacked Atlanta Braves48c43.44$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.855757.9%33 W · 24 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Washington Nationals53c38.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9236250.3%182 W · 180 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8abf…c736backed Atlanta Braves32c34.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Nationals52c29.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.114,52448.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L-42.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f6…0981backed Washington Nationals57c26.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3215857.6%91 W · 67 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc50…7fdebacked Atlanta Braves44c23.11$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.176546.2%30 W · 35 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Washington Nationals53c22.88$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7518649.5%92 W · 94 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19bd…ae36backed Washington Nationals53c22.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6418652.7%98 W · 88 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1724…6e49backed Atlanta Braves49c20.76$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc37e…9e64backed Washington Nationals57c20.7$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.929553.2%157 W · 138 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd78e…6421backed Washington Nationals52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.623750.6%120 W · 117 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a4b…3107backed Washington Nationals77c19.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5112572%90 W · 35 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf58…2bf4backed Washington Nationals57c19.18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2540148.1%193 W · 208 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals74c18.67$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.896,12855.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L+347.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4412…f131backed Washington Nationals56c18.01$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.922157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6594…6593backed Washington Nationals56c18$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.92147.1%1 W · 13 L-6.6wins-0.47per pick54cpaid-87.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.