La Liga · resolved market
Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc16723704980343550740c2be96933575ab4e07240730ed1054ad200dee34e83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 40c | 2,381$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.55 | 1,176 | 51.9%610 W · 566 L | +18.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a2…6883backed Yes | 61c | 1,631$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x833d…ec8ebacked No | 56c | 1,140$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00c…4a39backed Yes | 54c | 733.46$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c73…cd83backed No | 43c | 537.69$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…b07abacked Yes | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb309…2f7dbacked No | 45c | 470.04$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…81e0backed Yes | 42c | 367$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.14 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa846…f93bbacked Yes | 61c | 365.57$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 55c | 230$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed No | 43c | 139.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.62 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ee…d0efbacked Yes | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…5b93backed Yes | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…698cbacked Yes | 57c | 96.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3229…4299backed Yes | 61c | 82.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…e18ebacked Yes | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9709…52abbacked No | 58c | 62.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2489…3356backed No | 43c | 61.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…d381backed Yes | 61c | 57.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 28.6%40 W · 100 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 46c | 44.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed No | 43c | 44.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeeb…fe51backed Yes | 47c | 42.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 444 | 24.1%107 W · 337 L | -50.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 58c | 34.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38eb…5a6dbacked Yes | 61c | 33.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 53c | 32.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 43c | 31.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…530cbacked Yes | 56c | 27.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Yes | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af3…f908backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Yes | 56c | 21.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…70cfbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420f…9090backed Yes | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorerthis page
- Endrick: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Jude Bellingham: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.