TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb00c…4a39

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
66
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Champions League, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 54 out of 100; worst La Liga at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT5632.1%18 W · 38 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 56 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$496Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$495.9
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$15,880Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+517.1%+$82,105.1
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$3,315Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+136.2%+$4,515.08
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$4,172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,171.98
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shotsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$32
Harry Kane: 1+ shotsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+51.2%+$122.38
Jude Bellingham: 1+ shotsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$355Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$354.94
Anthony Gordon: 1+ shotsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$363Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$297
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+104.2%+$158.59
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$552Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$552.01
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$552Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$551.89
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$282.66
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$527Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$527.11
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$302.8
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$254.14
Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shotsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.73
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$589Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$589.3
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$233.33
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advancebacked Cabo Verde · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$595Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$595
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advancebacked Croatia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advancebacked Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$983Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$577.2
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$501Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$500.5
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$523Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$523.4
Showing 25 of 56 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+93.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Ligalast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$399Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$398.78
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Málaga CF: Málaga CF O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$204.85
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Justin Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$77.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lauri Saaskilahti Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lexington: Rei Sakamoto vs Edas Butvilasbacked Rei Sakamoto · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.