Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc184eaa362d87e060aa2958dacba796ae138d971c57c35e56e8f5843057014d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 38c | 1,096$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.19 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 59c | 550$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.5 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 52c | 532.79$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.19 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 427.38$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 46c | 415.81$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.66 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 404.82$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 7c | 392$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 42c | 382.41$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.96 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 59c | 377.7$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.99 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 27c | 330.02$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.23 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 320.39$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 285.02$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 47c | 277.74$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.63 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…ff74backed No | 26c | 255.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 241.21$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.78 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 44c | 232.31$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.31 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 43c | 218.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.54 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 13c | 200.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 48c | 200.06$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked No | 64c | 192.16$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.06 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 68c | 190.46$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 37c | 180$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.55 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 12c | 155.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 144.81$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.58 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 59c | 138.62$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 35c | 130.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.23 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 37c | 128.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 123.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 112.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…34bdbacked Yes | 48c | 104.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…2c4abacked Yes | 40c | 99.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.93 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 18c | 98.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.07 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 42c | 94.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 66c | 93.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 15c | 91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 34c | 87.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 57c | 86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 58c | 85.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 40c | 84.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 37c | 82.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 71c | 75.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 38c | 75.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 41c | 73.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 45c | 72.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 65c | 71.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 18c | 68.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 61c | 68.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 52c | 67.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 62.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 67c | 60.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 67c | 60.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 68c | 58.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 58c | 56.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 37c | 56.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 48c | 56.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 64c | 56.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 62c | 51.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 69c | 51.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed Yes | 40c | 51.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 60c | 50.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 59c | 48.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 57c | 47.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf138…befdbacked Yes | 41c | 46.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 46.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 44c | 45.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 63c | 45.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 61c | 45.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 44.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 34c | 44.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 62c | 42.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…4bb2backed Yes | 63c | 41.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Yes | 31c | 41.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 37c | 40.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 41c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 66c | 37.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 68c | 36.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed No | 68c | 36.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dad…f0dcbacked No | 55c | 36.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 61c | 35.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…1d38backed No | 71c | 35.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 65c | 33.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 34c | 33.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 35c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 33c | 32.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaec…2694backed No | 62c | 32.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 62c | 32.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12c7…14babacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…5596backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 51°F or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.