Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c8fb49d526e5ed861e77d98d8deb935a1cea2498cba5aae13b0f533c4861d8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 751.21$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.24 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…913ebacked Yes | 27c | 647.52$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 26c | 460.22$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.25 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 452.16$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 27c | 449.36$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.91 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 434.91$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.98 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 409.35$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 49c | 363.32$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.73 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 6c | 353.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked No | 50c | 324.04$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.19 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 34c | 291.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 230$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 42c | 224.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 10c | 191.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 30c | 180$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 75c | 166.67$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 68c | 146.04$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 8c | 120.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 50c | 120.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.47 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 18c | 103$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 28c | 95.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 30c | 90.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 56c | 89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 83.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 21c | 82.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 68c | 75.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 29c | 74.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x601d…0afdbacked Yes | 26c | 70.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 68c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 35c | 67.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 21c | 65.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 58.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 74c | 58.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 52.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 29c | 49.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 42c | 49.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 25c | 48.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d8…1db0backed Yes | 25c | 47.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 58c | 45.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 44.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…fbdebacked Yes | 37c | 42.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf357…10b6backed Yes | 32c | 41.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 42c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 40.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 54c | 40.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked Yes | 33c | 37.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 67c | 35.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 60c | 33.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 33c | 30.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 50c | 30.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 29.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe385…86c1backed Yes | 37c | 28.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes | 37c | 28.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 73c | 27.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 55c | 25.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 70c | 25.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 25.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 74c | 25.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed No | 72c | 24.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 69c | 21.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 68c | 20.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 58c | 19.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dad…f0dcbacked No | 53c | 19.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 73c | 18.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 58c | 17.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 69c | 14.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 51°F or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.