Movies · resolved market
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc18ea679bc521dd02beefbda18b85dbf241317970584809551f9dec26a7ebf47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7737…e2eebacked Yes | 6c | 6,433$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 0c | 5,526$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…7249backed Yes | 1c | 3,066$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 4c | 1,700$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 1c | 1,516$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d84…2a04backed Yes | 7c | 1,144$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ca…0f21backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15c…6d09backed Yes | 75c | 955.04$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…8f39backed No | 25c | 955.04$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.28 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Yes | 45c | 906.6$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.11 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa607…2caebacked Yes | 38c | 867.03$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 3c | 798.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 779.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 18c | 559.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked Yes | 35c | 328.95$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.42 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed Yes | 15c | 325.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192b…709fbacked Yes | 3c | 313.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2d…1341backed Yes | 4c | 299.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…8652backed Yes | 30c | 280.77$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…eeaebacked Yes | 4c | 253.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 10c | 195$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7921…4f39backed Yes | 15c | 177.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 35c | 172.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…3a94backed No | 70c | 141.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 63c | 138.67$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 78c | 128.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Yes | 22c | 99.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f3…af65backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 23c | 70.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…e42abacked Yes | 35c | 57.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8df…74efbacked Yes | 28c | 56.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74a…8d5ebacked Yes | 23c | 51.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…43e2backed Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…ec9dbacked Yes | 37c | 40.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1ecebacked Yes | 58c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0511…3069backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)this page
- Will "Man Vs Baby" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)Yes won
- Will "Sean Combs: The Reckoning" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.