Movies · resolved market
Will "Man Vs Baby" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27eaf181d96307c68f3bd0fb9dc5a1af8e9449d68e26f0bbcfef9dd4ce165436
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x110f…8f39backed Yes | 72c | 7,100$5,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,961.32 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 20c | 5,761$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.1 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 5c | 4,000$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 34c | 2,105$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.79 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 22c | 999.97$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee2…abe9backed No | 75c | 869.09$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 10c | 842.7$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…3a94backed Yes | 19c | 803.19$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.34 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x627d…cf6bbacked No | 13c | 785.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 64c | 755.74$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.43 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked Yes | 51c | 610$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.02 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 70c | 570.28$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.28 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1f…ec98backed No | 49c | 550$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0f…1132backed Yes | 78c | 467.65$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5b…afe2backed No | 18c | 300$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…a90dbacked No | 36c | 293.16$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba8…11a2backed Yes | 75c | 242.59$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ade…e692backed No | 28c | 223.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…4a12backed Yes | 73c | 209.3$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ee…8e12backed Yes | 37c | 208.61$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…039cbacked No | 63c | 208.61$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…9ccfbacked Yes | 67c | 167.24$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed No | 31c | 162$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae7…0fd1backed Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes | 76c | 134.38$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 74cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…143bbacked No | 60c | 133.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 39c | 132.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x854e…8ad8backed Yes | 76c | 131.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 80c | 116.94$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed No | 24c | 97.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 27c | 93.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.85 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 34c | 87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked No | 67c | 83.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…9e95backed No | 14c | 83.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 36c | 78.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 68c | 72.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa22…27febacked No | 35c | 71.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +154.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…2a7bbacked No | 17c | 71.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910b…ff42backed Yes | 73c | 68.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 68.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 32c | 66.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 29c | 66.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 58.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d1…cac5backed Yes | 44c | 45.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe68…6b06backed Yes | 68c | 43.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf128…c9f5backed Yes | 54c | 39.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff8…6f36backed No | 37c | 35.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…deffbacked Yes | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa220…7dd5backed Yes | 68c | 34.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…ae19backed Yes | 67c | 31.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9b…7778backed Yes | 73c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…c078backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c2…fb36backed Yes | 62c | 22.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd1…3654backed Yes | 68c | 22.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…fb31backed Yes | 68c | 22.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…9df0backed Yes | 78c | 21.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Man Vs Baby" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)this page
- Will "Sean Combs: The Reckoning" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)No won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.