MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc19034db68a8c71495b7f5e08a0d2f1007bbb98c660dbb1f3de0c5ab183f1887
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 43c | 4,000$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.99 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 57c | 1,799$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.69 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Over | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.14 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 723$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.66 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 58c | 543.34$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.11 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 42c | 469.69$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.72 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 41c | 295.98$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.35 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Under | 42c | 235$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Over | 59c | 170$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 44c | 163.63$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 42c | 160.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 45c | 156.45$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 56c | 129.02$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 42c | 127.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 121.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 120.28$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 62c | 120$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 60c | 116.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 46c | 107.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Over | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 43c | 94.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 59c | 81.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 56c | 64.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Over | 58c | 37.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 61c | 30.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 34c | 29.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 42c | 26.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati RedsWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 14.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 15.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 16.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.