TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$311,238
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$312,064

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $311,238 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb91a…3987backed Over48c159,776$76,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83,431.3513561.5%83 W · 52 L+15.2wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.5%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under53c112,773$59,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,825.524,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Over47c100,662$47,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,357.3141149.1%202 W · 209 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Under52c35,000$18,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,20011952.9%63 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under53c27,917$14,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,713.842,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Under52c24,749$12,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,869.4723538.3%90 W · 145 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Under52c18,550$9,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,645.9284049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under52c15,088$7,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,869.3211,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Under52c8,000$4,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,16017248.8%84 W · 88 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Under53c5,898$3,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,125.9414252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over47c4,374$2,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,318.041,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Under52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08095850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Under52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08020350.7%103 W · 100 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Under53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1205143.1%22 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under52c3,941$2,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,052.793,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over47c2,800$1,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.336,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked Under52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0408441.7%35 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x78b0…9f1abacked Over49c1,918$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.3739047.4%185 W · 205 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Under52c1,757$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.652,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe3ad…45f9backed Over48c1,460$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.1811741.9%49 W · 68 L-8.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf92…4bfdbacked Under52c1,451$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.528749.4%43 W · 44 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over47c1,427$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.314,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under52c1,413$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.285,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under53c1,179$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.841,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under53c1,179$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.841,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Over47c1,065$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.4568053.2%362 W · 318 L+2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Over48c1,005$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.673748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Under52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52070744.7%316 W · 391 L-22.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Under53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53044451.1%227 W · 217 L+1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Under53c947.33$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.0838353.5%205 W · 178 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Under53c915.12$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.2747350.7%240 W · 233 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under52c903$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.5692054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under56c900.78$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.388,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ae…7aa6backed Over49c820.58$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.587048.6%34 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Under52c803.77$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.961,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under53c716.65$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.4619248.4%93 W · 99 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over47c589.74$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.168,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over48c581.59$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.431,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over47c517.87$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.479,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cd3…5896backed Under51c490$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.917446%80 W · 94 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1694034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked Over49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1638455.2%212 W · 172 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Under52c400$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2086346%29 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf05d…ac5ebacked Under52c400$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2087048.6%34 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under52c390$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.941,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Over48c370.29$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.7325249.6%125 W · 127 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under52c355.45$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.542,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Under52c353$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.5999744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86ee…511fbacked Over48c351.33$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.6924350.6%123 W · 120 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over47c330.62$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.391,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f85…7e17backed Over49c306.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.125648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Over47c261.21$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.4413452.2%70 W · 64 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bbb…4a56backed Under53c242.24$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1285846.6%27 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0373…6d6bbacked Under52c240.38$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1254450%22 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe74a…f1bfbacked Under53c227.03$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.332240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-27.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under52c217$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.841,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over48c210$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.21,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Over49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.081,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76e4…febcbacked Over49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.089045.6%41 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Over49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10248354.7%264 W · 219 L+20.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x81f3…1f2abacked Over48c197.02$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.985446.3%25 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6717…d6ebbacked Under53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10037256.5%210 W · 162 L+1.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Under54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024950.6%126 W · 123 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd52c…6c59backed Under52c153.85$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8029331.7%93 W · 200 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Over47c123.38$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.398943.8%39 W · 50 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under52c113.5$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.022,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1de2…970ebacked Under19c113.4$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.21637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Under52c102$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0467444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x225f…5978backed Under20c100.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Under52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Over47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536746.3%31 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5237357.4%214 W · 159 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under52c96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9221353.5%114 W · 99 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over47c94.88$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.291,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf58…2bf4backed Under53c94.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8440148.1%193 W · 208 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Under52c92.18$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.931,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Over49c90.63$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.228648.8%42 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under52c85.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.547558.7%44 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over48c82.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.962,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Over49c81.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6353448.9%261 W · 273 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Under52c79.2$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1830048%144 W · 156 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over54c77$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.185,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3704…5487backed Under53c75.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4015349.7%76 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe743…ce0fbacked Under53c75.09$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.86940.6%28 W · 41 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x94a4…6f8fbacked Under53c71.23$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.75757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Under52c70$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.41,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36e1…f0b6backed Over48c67.83$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.27850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Over48c67.56$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1378155.6%434 W · 347 L+28.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over49c61.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.221,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under53c53.47$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.11,19550%597 W · 598 L+5.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under53c53.33$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.194648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Over48c52.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0821944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd60…3927backed Over49c51.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.025549.1%27 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4280…cb8cbacked Over48c51$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.52757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Under45c50.91$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.861,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa17e…cfcdbacked Under56c50.66$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.372060%12 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed Under52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2611250%56 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd77d…b01cbacked Under52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254548.9%22 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcce5…7eb2backed Under52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255345.3%24 W · 29 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Under38c45.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9882551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.