MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc2eeb9a45984211c0151dbd8e65c3f4aeabf88dbe52b73a977b0999aea5f110
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 59c | 2,569$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 44c | 1,135$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.15 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 44c | 1,122$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.99 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 1,110$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.64 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 45c | 1,104$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.99 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 56c | 827.35$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.31 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 76c | 751.11$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.84 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 24c | 704.79$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.64 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Under | 33c | 700$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 63c | 666$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.42 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 39c | 481.49$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.29 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 43c | 396$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.28 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 76c | 394$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.44 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x225f…5978backed Under | 12c | 373.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 57c | 301.64$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.7 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 40c | 276.62$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 250.35$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 25c | 185.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.78 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Over | 26c | 152.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.88 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 57c | 151.12$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 61c | 150.38$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 48c | 95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5cdebacked Under | 37c | 35.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 42c | 25.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Over | 77c | 19.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 74c | 18.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 75c | 16.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 76c | 15.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati RedsWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 14.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 15.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 16.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.