MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb47b4afc1edaceb5b7abefb11cb2f7876d404e1347648184945e0c8685d362e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Cincinnati Reds, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 3,839$1,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,870.51 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 2,811$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.64 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 1,939$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.87 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 1,700$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.98 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 1,383$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.59 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals | 50c | 1,304$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.5 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…2f94backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 78c | 522.74$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.93 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 362.61$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.77 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 53c | 347.5$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.28 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 341.48$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.47 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 299$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.83 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 250.48$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.83 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 25c | 143.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 136.69$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.61 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 134.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.21 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 134.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 109.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 91.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Washington Nationals | 46c | 91.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 69.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 60.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 50.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 49.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 43.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 42.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 26.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 23.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati RedsWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 14.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 15.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 16.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.