MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc194cb02fd8689fa3163c0a6a048bd30010296e5bbd0e827199a50ec2ff0532d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Kansas City Royals, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Kansas City Royals | 9c | 1,310$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.27 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Athletics | 66c | 943.77$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.17 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Kansas City Royals | 35c | 407$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.45 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 400$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Kansas City Royals | 40c | 202.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.57 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc4…5a94backed Athletics | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Kansas City Royals | 13c | 187$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 11c | 173.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Kansas City Royals | 18c | 123.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Athletics | 63c | 104$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Kansas City Royals | 28c | 95.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Kansas City Royals | 15c | 94.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 88.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Athletics | 65c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Kansas City Royals | 35c | 53.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Athletics | 65c | 48.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Athletics | 61c | 40.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals | 37c | 37.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked Athletics | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Athletics | 65c | 16.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Athletics | 65c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.