TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$85,349
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$94,105

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,349 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6498…8910backed Over63c12,072$7,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,663.6651756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Over51c7,632$3,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,884.641,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under35c7,599$2,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,921.2712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under49c5,542$2,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,832.194,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Under43c5,260$2,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,014.8227351.3%140 W · 133 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a6…c8d3backed Over52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6009350.5%47 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under43c4,314$1,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,438.818,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under49c3,950$1,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,022.232,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Over47c3,362$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,580.081,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea7…7a4abacked Under56c3,200$1,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.941963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under54c3,102$1,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,425.29,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over48c1,973$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.555,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1da3…2f94backed Under53c1,887$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.799354.8%51 W · 42 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over50c1,525$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.755,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under54c1,479$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.152,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Over49c1,313$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.3482551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed Under48c1,200$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6241450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under74c1,112$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.241,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over47c1,032$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.1467250.1%337 W · 335 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb46…3692backed Over52c1,030$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.61428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-38.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Under53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47014938.3%57 W · 92 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Over51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5109843.9%43 W · 55 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Over45c948.84$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.766746.3%31 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x469d…1a62backed Under77c900$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-64.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over19c887$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.291,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over62c831.03$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.7410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over55c750.68$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.988,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Under51c678$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.9727249.3%134 W · 138 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Over52c652.46$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.081,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under52c579.99$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.61,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over59c565.4$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.386,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over47c530$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24975248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Under48c520$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.422548.4%109 W · 116 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Under58c433.75$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.2837143.9%163 W · 208 L-21.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over52c385.42$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.426,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9e7…0febbacked Over49c378.41$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.427851.3%40 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over64c359.2$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.875,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under22c330$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.419143.5%83 W · 108 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbcc…edc9backed Over34c290.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under34c287.65$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.756,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over33c280.84$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8375344.1%332 W · 421 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x298c…3e58backed Over47c250$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.56946.4%32 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under48c244.34$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.062,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ddc…e874backed Under39c240.44$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.3519442.3%82 W · 112 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over51c234.42$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.721,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over47c215$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.051,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over49c208.65$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.171,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under52c204.1$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.392,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Under67c201.47$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.171,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Over48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9659150.3%297 W · 294 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked Over51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038455.2%212 W · 172 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ae…e0cdbacked Over56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under56c167.7$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.432,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under28c151.24$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.351,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over62c128.32$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d0a…07c7backed Over44c114.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under43c104.75$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.061,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under40c101.67$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.672147.6%10 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Under58c95.12$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5416947.3%80 W · 89 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c5…5a2fbacked Under54c93.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.261942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10ac…0e0bbacked Under59c90$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.911951.3%61 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ffe…9150backed Over51c81.74$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7615037.3%56 W · 94 L-15.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-33.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over50c64.95$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3127354.6%149 W · 124 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Under54c63$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.981,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fd…3914backed Under61c62.41$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.41250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c99…d91abacked Over45c62$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1212235.2%43 W · 79 L-10.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-19.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Under60c61.21$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2329047.6%138 W · 152 L-11.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Under52c61.1$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3325249.6%125 W · 127 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ac4…a601backed Under50c59.8$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.85341.5%22 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Over51c58.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Under50c58.33$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0539344.3%174 W · 219 L-22.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4cb…a917backed Over53c56.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.720751.2%106 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55af…8407backed Over47c51.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Under64c50.79$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f5…bb11backed Over52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2655953.1%297 W · 262 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x239d…daebbacked Under51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.530350.8%154 W · 149 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Under67c49.55$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5197050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7708…42cbbacked Under57c47.27$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.282138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Over49c45.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5272247.6%344 W · 378 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Under56c45.91$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.191,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9cb…f883backed Over65c44.97$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.08450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb267…d710backed Over63c43.89$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.551942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x095d…110bbacked Over25c43.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.931250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x623a…5144backed Under47c42.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.124235.7%15 W · 27 L-7.2wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-30.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Over45c40.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2849942.9%214 W · 285 L-31.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe503…6d7bbacked Under50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202272.7%16 W · 6 L+5.2wins+0.24per pick49cpaid+45.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4739…a1c1backed Under48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+110.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Over45c39.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.671,19550%597 W · 598 L+5.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Under36c39.04$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1322848.2%110 W · 118 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b9f…b100backed Over51c39.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203743.2%16 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under51c39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1121353.5%114 W · 99 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over53c38.84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.592,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a98…8754backed Under43c38.32$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.942157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7961…a812backed Over47c38.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3169…6dccbacked Over66c37.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515045.3%68 W · 82 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ad…5097backed Over46c36.89$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.978347%39 W · 44 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed Over44c33.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8884140.2%338 W · 503 L-3.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Over44c32.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5141847.6%199 W · 219 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cef…9d08backed Under47c31.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.913253.1%17 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Over42c30.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1394648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.