MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15d6d3f7adb2513431a6ead2f1532de1c510ab840bd07f2490da6293218d5ef3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 6,169$3,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,852.03 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 58c | 5,000$2,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,886.77 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 38c | 4,184$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,607.92 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Under | 58c | 2,550$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.43 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 43c | 2,542$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.56 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 2,493$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.28 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 59c | 1,567$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.96 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 53c | 1,484$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.41 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 37c | 1,383$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.88 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 42c | 1,200$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.99 | 1,894 | 52.9%1,001 W · 893 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 57c | 922.37$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.61 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 45c | 880.43$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 49c | 597$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.65 | 4,120 | 57.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L | +67.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 62c | 565.33$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.49 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 52c | 554.36$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.28 | 5,240 | 56.8%2,974 W · 2,266 L | +130.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 52c | 368.71$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.01 | 5,182 | 54.6%2,829 W · 2,353 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 40c | 250.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.46 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 232.72$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.23 | 6,309 | 48.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 51c | 226.19$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.64 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 43c | 183.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 813 | 51.7%420 W · 393 L | +20.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…7a4abacked Under | 66c | 179.63$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 52c | 161.66$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.93 | 1,745 | 49.1%857 W · 888 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccea…a8ebbacked Under | 53c | 148.94$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 802 | 43.3%347 W · 455 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 53c | 137.55$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 42c | 136.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Over | 42c | 134.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 46c | 132.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 47c | 110.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 59c | 100.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 231 | 48.5%112 W · 119 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 50c | 85.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Over | 42c | 81.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 55c | 81.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Under | 53c | 78.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 50c | 78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Over | 45c | 74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 38c | 71.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Under | 56c | 64.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 56c | 62.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34de…8e6bbacked Under | 60c | 62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Over | 43c | 61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 60c | 60.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 1,377 | 54.2%747 W · 630 L | +16.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 44c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 61c | 58.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 45c | 58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 646 | 53.9%348 W · 298 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7708…42cbbacked Under | 68c | 57.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Under | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 43c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6f…0cf2backed Under | 59c | 46.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 64c | 45.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 65c | 40.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 46c | 39.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…b336backed Under | 75c | 38.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Over | 39c | 38.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 53c | 37.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cb…f883backed Over | 55c | 32.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf1…0694backed Under | 63c | 31.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 51c | 30.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 6,132 | 55.4%3,395 W · 2,737 L | +346.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 52c | 30.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 2,550 | 45.8%1,168 W · 1,382 L | -75.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 63c | 29.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 51c | 28.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…fb2dbacked Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 47c | 24.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 49c | 21.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 419 | 36.5%153 W · 266 L | -31.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Over | 51c | 21.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 21.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 5,567 | 50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L | +25.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe99d…b27fbacked Under | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb267…d710backed Over | 61c | 19.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.