MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c45d2239d322eaef023c31e1636724f0df2780fd9d4bbbf9fa5afe5ce3c6922
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Athletics, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Athletics | 53c | 15,000$7,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,050 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 47c | 7,503$3,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,506.27 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Kansas City Royals | 47c | 7,291$3,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,427 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Athletics | 38c | 1,250$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…36b0backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 1,243$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.37 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 1,229$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.09 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Athletics | 38c | 1,100$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 989.64$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.19 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 677.03$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.57 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Kansas City Royals | 63c | 530.76$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.23 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Athletics | 52c | 521.07$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.77 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 62c | 468.44$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.72 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 379.99$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.2 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Athletics | 36c | 374.4$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.52 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals | 65c | 333.6$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.65 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbe…7cb2backed Athletics | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Athletics | 38c | 129.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Kansas City Royals | 32c | 119.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Athletics | 42c | 116$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Athletics | 44c | 99.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Athletics | 34c | 95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Athletics | 73c | 93.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Athletics | 35c | 92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Athletics | 70c | 85.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Kansas City Royals | 23c | 78.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Athletics | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Athletics | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Athletics | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Kansas City Royals | 26c | 69.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Athletics | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Kansas City Royals | 63c | 67.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Athletics | 37c | 67.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Kansas City Royals | 33c | 62.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 71c | 50.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Athletics | 41c | 46.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 45.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Kansas City Royals | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Athletics | 37c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb267…d710backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 36.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Kansas City Royals | 49c | 34.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Athletics | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Athletics | 36c | 29.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202b…e209backed Athletics | 68c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Athletics | 41c | 27.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Athletics | 65c | 17.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Kansas City Royals | 76c | 16.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Kansas City Royals | 67c | 16.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 150 | 37.3%56 W · 94 L | -15.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…4213backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.