Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc19accb36b88d70eb288963cd3871509b215f60db540f501788e1b4e53716b22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 21c | 843.85$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.59 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 77c | 551.49$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.35 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked No | 64c | 393.16$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.21 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 25c | 320.55$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.15 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf97b…c751backed Yes | 32c | 303.3$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.11 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 22c | 269.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.69 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 173.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.66 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 73c | 155.27$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 38c | 134.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 131.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 125.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 29c | 124.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.69 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 46c | 122.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 9c | 121.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 109.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 19c | 97.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 88.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 26c | 84.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked No | 78c | 82.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 80.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 80.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 45c | 74.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 71.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 21c | 67.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 28c | 64.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 80c | 62.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa010…9d5bbacked No | 80c | 61.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 80c | 61.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 80c | 57.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 35c | 54.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 74c | 51.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 30c | 50.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 40c | 50.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 21c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 79c | 48.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 24c | 47.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22b…3d0fbacked Yes | 28c | 46.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 44.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 78c | 43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…90e6backed Yes | 27c | 39.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +274.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 37c | 38.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 78c | 37.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 58c | 36.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 78c | 34.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 59c | 33.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 75c | 32.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 29.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 54c | 29.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 74c | 26.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 40c | 26.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 79c | 24.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 22.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed No | 62c | 21.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf833…0208backed No | 78c | 18.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 16.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…fd22backed No | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 79c | 15.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcc…788cbacked No | 76c | 14.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…8c71backed No | 79c | 14.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 14.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.