College Football · resolved market
Spread: Texas (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1d85c2df07bc9885215b80d168afc6a86323880088a2107e8642c5d4f781717
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kentuckyof Texas, Kentucky
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Kentucky | 51c | 12,254$6,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,048.49 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Texas | 49c | 9,855$4,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,829 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…9ed3backed Kentucky | 49c | 3,061$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.22 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texas | 51c | 2,937$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.26 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed83…a91fbacked Kentucky | 52c | 1,300$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Texas | 51c | 1,227$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.77 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Texas | 47c | 725$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.75 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Texas | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Kentucky | 49c | 544$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.44 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Kentucky | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 148 | 36.5%54 W · 94 L | -11.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f02…7104backed Texas | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Kentucky | 64c | 340$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Texas | 36c | 340$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Texas | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Kentucky | 49c | 240$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Texas | 52c | 209.92$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Kentucky | 40c | 206.66$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.1 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…ab9dbacked Texas | 53c | 189.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Texas | 50c | 189.1$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Kentucky | 49c | 138$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Kentucky | 49c | 136$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Texas | 50c | 127.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Texas | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Texas | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b5…a1f2backed Texas | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Texas | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…796abacked Texas | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff2…8a43backed Texas | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Texas | 49c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…3363backed Texas | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Texas | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas (-12.5)this page
- O/U 42.5Under won
- Texas vs. KentuckyTexas won
- Texas vs. Kentucky: O/U 43.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.