Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1efdf5dddd91a69a57b6848676a0ef376bcfc7ee16b107057f6aba4af8fefda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 6c | 379.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 77c | 363.33$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 360$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 9c | 353.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 344.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 62c | 324.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.77 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 270.09$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.34 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 23c | 250.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 31c | 225.39$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 182.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde01…a938backed Yes | 17c | 177.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 10c | 165$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a27…51ffbacked Yes | 28c | 153.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 11c | 151.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 151.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 23c | 150.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 24c | 147$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 18c | 142.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…7f98backed Yes | 23c | 138.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 15c | 130.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 77c | 116.96$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 75c | 114.24$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 108.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 14c | 103.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…7bfdbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 24c | 89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 14c | 88.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 25c | 84.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 75.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…51bfbacked Yes | 15c | 74.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 68.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 15c | 68.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 79c | 67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes | 18c | 64.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3f95backed No | 76c | 64.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 26c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 56.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f7…1f0abacked No | 80c | 49.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…7b51backed No | 74c | 42.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 40.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 76c | 38.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed No | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 30.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 38c | 30.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed No | 76c | 26.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 74c | 26.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716b…9fcfbacked No | 80c | 24.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -38%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 23.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 61c | 20.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…f8b0backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 58c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 71c | 15.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 73c | 13.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.