Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59aced635427fb27f8457ac3f2ae4157579fdaae0843983de5a87328b3f5ca7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 4c | 963.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 23c | 500$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.17 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 418.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 310.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 21c | 237.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 24c | 209.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…7f98backed Yes | 14c | 199.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 72c | 197.36$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 77c | 189.68$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 16c | 185$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 21c | 184.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 15c | 174.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 24c | 166.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 150.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 22c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 23c | 143.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 23c | 136$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 21c | 135.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 128.74$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…0567backed No | 79c | 128.15$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 77c | 120.63$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 13c | 118.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 38c | 114.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…52adbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 105$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 105$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a27…51ffbacked Yes | 28c | 99.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 77c | 98.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 72c | 96.68$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 22c | 83.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24b5…d8dbbacked Yes | 22c | 81.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…51bfbacked No | 59c | 77.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 29c | 77.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 19c | 77.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Yes | 36c | 73.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 20c | 67.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 23c | 66.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 77c | 64.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 75c | 62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 56.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 50.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa673…767ebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 48.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 44.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked Yes | 24c | 40.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 78c | 38.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 66c | 37.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 69c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 31c | 32.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 71c | 29.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 72c | 27.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…79d8backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 23.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbb…d419backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf08…d5a4backed No | 78c | 17.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 76c | 14.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.