Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64e33ba5efaba0d65a34567f2a4e2a2b77650c4f21e36637ea5d9349ff548bf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 76c | 737.21$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.49 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…c303backed Yes | 67c | 577.5$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.6 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 57c | 552.1$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.52 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 524.79$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.22 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 517.97$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 16c | 470.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 34c | 465$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 15c | 410.71$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 79c | 392.41$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 44c | 382.51$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.33 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 36c | 378.1$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.08 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 29c | 300$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 11c | 269.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 207.54$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 25c | 196.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.38 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc354…5800backed No | 75c | 190.38$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…0cf2backed Yes | 66c | 187.6$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 165$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 46c | 150.74$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.72 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a27…51ffbacked Yes | 43c | 136.86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 24c | 136.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 133.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 78c | 131.68$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed Yes | 79c | 126.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 71cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 68c | 120$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 116.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.61 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 51c | 115.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…52adbacked Yes | 22c | 111.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.37 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 40c | 107.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 103.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 75c | 91.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 58c | 86.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 86.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.86 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 25c | 85.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 83.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 78c | 82.96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 26c | 80.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 16c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 44c | 79.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 67c | 76.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 16c | 75.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 28c | 70.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 68c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Yes | 79c | 67.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…8fabbacked No | 30c | 67.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 74c | 67.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97bd…f2adbacked No | 70c | 65.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 40c | 64.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 64.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 24c | 62.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed No | 20c | 62.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 72c | 62.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 21c | 62.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 60.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 80c | 59.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed No | 44c | 58.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf62b…07c5backed No | 68c | 57.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 65c | 56.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 54.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 27c | 50.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 50.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 77c | 49.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 65c | 48.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86f7…1f0abacked Yes | 65c | 48.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 41c | 47.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 33c | 46.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…e3f0backed Yes | 66c | 44.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 77c | 43.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 43.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 40c | 43.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 37c | 43.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked Yes | 34c | 42.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…7f98backed Yes | 27c | 42.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 47c | 40.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 50c | 39.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 50c | 39.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 77c | 38.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 41c | 37.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 68c | 37.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 36c | 36.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 36.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed No | 40c | 31.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 49c | 30.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…79d8backed No | 67c | 30.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.